Saturday 5 April 2014

Pistorius Trial: Witness Timelines (Prosecution summary)

The prosecution has closed its case in the Oscar Pistorius trial.  No more witnesses will be called for the prosecution.

Curiously, they have not yet made a complete statement of their case. In the US, a full description of the way events occurred would probably have been given at the opening of the trial, followed by witness depositions confirming the various points.  However, in the Pistorius trial, it feels like prosecutor Gerrie Nel is holding his cards close to his chest, waiting for the closing arguments.

Pistorius defense lawyer Barry Roux made certain observations about the state's case to which Prosecutor Nel objected.  With seeming reluctance, he said that it was not the state's case that Pistorius had been wearing his prosthetic legs during the shooting, and that it was the state's case that Reeva Steenkamp was killed by a series of four shots fired at 3:17am.  He did not let slip any hint of the state's case concerning the location in time of the cricket bat blows against the door, or volunteer any information about his interpretation of the three bangs heard by some witnesses at 3:00 or 3:02am.  So at this point we don't know the state's contentions with respect to these events.

Another important missing piece of the puzzle is the testimony of several more of Pistorius' neighbors.  Estelle van der Merwe's husband has not testified. Of principal importance are the Nhlengethwas, a couple living to the house just to the left of Pistorius'.  This was the house in which neighbor Anette Stipp from across the green (facing the two houses) saw all the lights on in the top story at 3:02am.  Security guard Pieter Baba testified that he received a call from Mr. Nhlengethwa at 3:16am, just before the call from Mr. Stipp.  These witnesses were not called by the prosecution, nor was Pistorius' gardener, who lived on his property, nor his neighbors to the right, nor some other, farther neighbors who appear on the full witness list of 107 people.  At least some of them will probably appear for the defense.

Before that happens, let's make a comparative analysis of the timeline statements made by the five neighbors who testified for the prosecution.

1:56am: Estelle van der Merwe heard sounds of loud arguing.  Covered her head with a pillow. Sounds continued for an hour.  Mainly heard one voice, a woman's voice. 

3:02am (but could be about 3 minutes earlier if clock is really fast): Stipps (72 meters away) hear three loud bangs that they take for gunshots.

Moments later (shortly after 3:00am) loud and continuous sounds of a woman's terrified screaming are heard by the Stipps, by Michell Burger and Charl Johnson (177 meters away).
This continued for several minutes, and the Stipps and Burger and Johnson also heard a man's voice shouting.
Burger and Johnson describe screams as "increasingly terrified, reaching a climax".
Anette Stipp thought they were "coming closer".
All say they will never forget the terrible screams.
Burger and Johnson heard the man shout "help, help, help".

3:15:51: Stipp calls Silver Woods security, 16 second call, rings but is not answered.  Roux and Oldwage dispute this, saying "you did get through".  Stipp says no, he would not have called the other numbers if he had. Anette Stipp recalls her husband saying no one answered.  Stipp unsuccessfully calls 10111 (police).

3:16am: Johnson calls wrong security number, then runs back out to balcony.

3:16am: Mr. Nhlengethwa calls Silver Woods security (Pieter Baba).

3:16-3:17am: Stipp gets through to Silver Woods security (Pieter Baba). 

3:17am: Gunshots.
Van der Merwe heard "four shots in quick succession" but gave the time as around or after 3am.
Burger heard four shots with a short pause after the first one and three in quick succession.
Johnson heard "a volley of shots, five or six shots".
Anette Stipp (on the threshold between balcony and bedroom) heard three shots in quick succession.
Johan Stipp (on the phone) heard "two or three shots".

3:17am: The Stipps, Burger and Johnson all stated that the screaming stopped after the last shot or faded away with the last shot.
Johan Stipp heard the man's voice shout "help, help, help" after the shots.

3:19:50: Pistorius called Mr. Stander.

3:21:33: Pistorius called security guard Pieter Baba (only cried, didn't speak).


SUMMARY:  Every interpretation seems to contradict some pieces of the testimony, although the testimonies together do not contradict each other very much. One clear contradiction is that Burger and Johnson placed the man's cry of "help, help, help" before the shots and Johan Stipp placed the cries after the shots. Burger's memory of this seems very clear.  She connects this with her belief that a couple was being attacked, a man shot in front of his wife. Knowing later that it was Pistorius who killed Reeva, she wonders if the cries of "help" might have been made in mockery. 

The quarrel from 2am to 3am is testified to only by van der Merwe.
The first set of three bangs is testified to only by the Stipps.
The lights on/open window in the bathroom is testified to only by the Stipps.
The dimmer light in the toilet window is testified to only by Anette Stipp.

Van der Merwe identified four bangs, although she doesn't know the exact time. She stated that they were followed by silence, then crying (not screams). 

Four witnesses concur on several minutes of increasing screaming by a woman's voice with a man's voice also heard (the fifth, van der Merwe, heard sounds of arguing), followed by a volley of shots.

It is common cause (i.e. accepted by both sides) that there were exactly four shots made at a single time.

The defense appears to present the following timeline: The shots occurred at 3am; Pistorius' home was in pitch darkness at the time, the Stipps heard only three because they were awoken from sleep; all the sounds of screaming, shouting and crying were made by Pistorius in the minutes after the shooting as he called Reeva, couldn't find her, realized what had happened, put on his legs and got his cricket bat. The bangs at 3:17am were made by the cricket bat hitting the bathroom door as he beat it down.

Accepting this scenario would  require believing that swinging a cricket bat could make sounds in extremely quick succession (described as "bangbangbang").  This was explicitly contradicted by some witnesses, particularly Johnson who said "there would be no time to reload the bat". It would require believing that Pistorius screams like a woman, and that all witnesses who thought they heard simultaneous female and male voices are wrong. It would require belief that Burger and Johnson at 177 meters heard a cricket bat did not hear earlier gunshots.  It would contradict certain parts of the testimony of the Stipps, such as: that Anette Stipp was awake before the first set of bangs and there were definitely only three, that they heard simultaneous voices, that the bathroom window was lit.  It would contradict the testimony of the expert (Vermeulen) who examined the door and concluded that the shots and cricket bat blows were all made by Pistorius without his prosthetic legs.  However he only said that it was uncomfortable to hit the door with the bat exactly on the marks when standing upright, not that it was impossible.  It also requires accepting that Reeva remained silently in the toilet, holding her phone, but did not either identify herself to Pistorius or call police as he was repeatedly instructing her to. 

The prosecution might present the case that the 3am bangs were the cricket bat hitting the door.  Various blog commentators have assumed this. But it would contradict the expert's testimony that the cricket bat hit the door after the shots. If Reeva were locked in the toilet at 3am already it would contradict the clarity and loudness of the screams. It might also contradict the fact that Anette Stipp saw dim light through the toilet window, which could indicate that the door to the bathroom was open.  (It could also be Reeva's cell phone, but would such a faint light be visible from far away?) It would also suggest a contradiction with the fact that Reeva was standing in front of the door when she was shot.  She might have been, but if she were terrified it would be more likely that she would take cover on or behind the toilet bowl.  Also, one of the blows from the cricket bat knocked a hole in the door so that one could wrench out a panel and reach in and unlock it, which is what Pistorius at some point actually did. So if he hit the door with the bat at 3am it seems unlikely that he would have shot through it at 3:17am.  This scenario does not seem convincing.

The prosecution could also assert that the sounds at 3am were unidentified bangs. Is it possible that Pistorius fired his gun out of the open window to the balcony, and then reloaded it? This may have been during a quarrel (viz. sounds heard by van der Merwe). Reeva began screaming; Pistorius shouted back at her and they quarrelled for several minutes; she ran into the toilet and locked the door for self-protection, and at 3:17 he shot four times through the door and killed her. He then shouted for help out the window and telephoned; he banged down the door (sounds unheard by neighbors) while waiting for help to arrive, then put on his prosthetic legs and carried Reeva downstairs.

This would contradict less testiomony: it would agree with the testimony that the screams were loud and unmuffled, that some dimmer light could be seen through the toilet window through the screaming (i.e. light from the bathroom, if the toilet door was open; the light in the toilet was apparently not working), and the testimony from the forensic pathologist that she was standing in front of the door facing it at the first shot, if she were actually locking it.

Maybe the defense will call other neighbors as witnesses and some further facts will be established.


8 comments:

  1. What if the Door was hit with the bat first with oscar on his stumps, he then shoots through the door in a rage, when it dawns on him what he has done he puts on his prosthesis grabs his cricket bat and pries the door open via the crack in the door made in hitting the door earlier, this also explains why Annette Stipp saw dim light in the toilet, it was shining through the crack in the door.

    ReplyDelete
  2. That would be a good prosecution timeline theory except for one thing: both the prosecution expert (Vermeulen) and the defense expert (Dixon) asserted very firmly that the cricket bat blows were made after the shots through the door. One of them showed a crack from the blows running right through a bullet hole. Even if you think the experts might still be wrong, it's hard to imagine the prosecution actually presenting a theory that contradicts even their own witness.

    There's also a psychological obstacle to that theory, in my opinion. If Pistorius were really trying to smash down the door with a cricket bat after Reeva locked herself in, before shooting, my guess is that a man like him would go right on hitting till he got through the door.

    About the dim light Anette Stipp saw in the bathroom, it seems to me that it might have come from Reeva's cell phone. She could have been using it for light (the light in the bathroom was broken) or have grabbed it as she ran to the bathroom in the hopes of calling someone, according to the scenario.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Prosecution theory's explained here are very weak...the only version that DOES fit the timeline is that of Oscar's ...He shot at about 3 am and at 3:15 he was banging the door down, at 3:19 he called Stander...now that does NOT make him innocent in any shape or form. As far as maybe he shot his gun out the balcony window...did they find any bullets or cartriges to that effect? NO ,so prosecution cannot say well maybe that is what those earlier sounds are... I would say that the damage on the silver frame in that bathroom may have been the 3 bang sounds the Stipps heard? it seems that we are inventing scenarios to fit the evidence given by the Stipps and by Merwe (she also heard the explosive sounds at about 3 am and she was looking at a clock.

    ReplyDelete
  4. The problem is to find a scenario that least contradicts the evidence. For this purpose, Pistorius' own scenario should not be taken as either more likely or less likely than any other a priori. It is a possible scenario, and needs to be compared with the evidence like the others.

    We have not seen the prosecution's scenario yet, nor heard all the evidence. Those elements may make Pistorius' scenario seem either more or less probable. If there are neighbors that heard sounds that confirm his story, that would help him. We'll see.

    But in the meantime, in my opinion, there are too many contradictions between Pistorius' scenario and witness evidence for it to be acceptable as is.

    Some of the main factual contradictions with Pistorius' version are:

    1) Sounds of arguing for 1 hour between 2am and 3am heard by van der Merwe.
    2) Lights on in bathroom directly after the 3am sounds and that remained on through the 3:17am sounds, seen by the Stipps.
    3) Only three sounds at 3am clearly heard by Mrs. Stipp who was awake at the time (Pistorius says these were the four shots).
    4) Four sounds clearly heard at 3:17am by Mrs. Burger (Pistorius says these were the three cricket bat blows).
    5) Food in Reeva's stomach 8 hours after dinner.

    Other elements that tell against Pistorius' version, although they are less directly factual, are
    6) Witnesses say that the sounds at 3:17am were in too quick succession to be cricket bat blows.
    7) Burger and Johnson heard the sounds at 3:17am and not at 3am, whereas the sound test showed that gunshots are louder than cricket bat blows.
    8) All witnesses are sure they heard a woman screaming.
    9) A man's voice was heard along with the woman's voice.

    Facts that Pistorius claims but that seem rather unlikely are:
    10) The disposition objects in the room is not as Pistorius described it, and he can only explain this by saying that police moved everything in the room.
    11) Reeva made no noise to let Pistorius know that she was in the toilet at any time, never answered his calls, but nor did she use her phone that she had with her in the toilet to call police, although she was alone there while he was calling to her to phone police. If, as he claims, she thought that there was an intruder in the bedroom and that he was retreating down the passage to the bathroom, she could have dialled police.

    In conclusion, Pistorius' story is not 100% convincing. But for the moment, we have not seen a prosecution theory that is more convincing, either.

    It is possible that the prosecution will use the damaged metal plate in the bathroom to explain the noises at 3am. That's an interesting point. I'm looking forward to finding out, and hearing the remaining defense witnesses. I'm particularly hoping to hear from Pistorius' direct neighbors, Mr. and Mrs. Nhlengethwa, who called security at 3:16am.


    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Excellent analysis. i am also curious to hear from Mr. & Ms. Stander who Pistorius called first and was on the scene FIRST! curious if the other neighbors Roux said did NOT hear screaming but only male crying , when did they hear the gunshots?

      Delete
  5. Here are some inaccurate statements that you posted:
    "3:15:51: Stipp calls Silver Woods security, 16 second call, rings but is not answered. Roux and Oldwage dispute this, saying "you did get through". Stipp says no, he would not have called the other numbers if he had. Anette Stipp recalls her husband saying no one answered. Stipp unsuccessfully calls 10111 (police). " This is the call that Stipp did get through to security so the gunshots were BEFORE this 3:15:51 call. Stipp told security he had heard the shots on this call.
    "3:16-3:17am: Stipp gets through to Silver Woods security (Pieter Baba). "
    Where in the trial did this vague time log come from ?
    "Van der Merwe heard "four shots in quick succession" but gave the time as around or after 3am. "
    Merwe said it was just after 3 am...so these are the first set of shots heard by the Stipps and from a security patrol man.
    How do you get the 3:17 am as the time Burger heard the shots? or as the time Reeva was shot?? In relation to the timelog of the calls made by the various witnesses, Reeva was shot around 3:12 - 3:14 am. I still do not know what the 3 am sounds like gunshots are, but I think they are related to the damage of the silver plate on the bathtub rim and the tiles breaking off the wall as crime scene photos depict
    .

    ReplyDelete
  6. The whole discussion concerning Stipp's phone call at 13:15:51that was marked as 16 seconds on the phone log occurred during Roux's cross-examination of Stipp. Stipp very clearly said he did not get through on that phone call and Roux said that he did. Stipp said that he did not, otherwise he would not have subsequently called 10111 and then again security. At this point Roux dropped the argument. Mrs. Stipp had also previously confirmed that her husband's first phone call to security was not answered.

    I gave Stipp about one minute to unsuccessfully call 10111 and then again security, that's why I put 3:16-3:17.

    For Burger and Johnson, Johnson made his 58-second call to the wrong security number at 3:16 and then testified that he hung up and went back out to the balcony, where he immediately heard the shots. That makes it 3:17, as it certainly can't be later.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Thanks for that very thorough analysis. You obviously put a lot of hard work into it.

    ReplyDelete